For shameless cynicism, I haven’t seen anything like Sunak’s plan in 40 years | will huton
JThe vanity of the Conservative Party is that it is the country, that it speaks on behalf of the country and that it is the guardian of the country’s true values. The combination of a first-past-the-post voting system, a divided and often ineligible opposition and a loose media certainly means she’s in government most of the time, seemingly justifying the conceit.
But that doesn’t mean vanity is justified. Britain is a far more progressive, generous and fair country than our right-wing party ever imagines. But for an ambitious conservative politician, the falsity of the equation does not matter. What matters is the goodwill of backbenchers and riding associations. Not only are they seen in the conservative tribal echo chamber as proxies for mainstream public opinion, but they are the voters who will confer the leadership of the party and thus the post of prime minister. Have them on your side and the premiership is yours.
That’s what the Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, must have thought as he crafted a spring budget whose hallmarks were fiscal deceit, political cynicism and a staggering lack of imagination. He presented himself as if he was in a difficult situation, but in truth, he was in anything but that. The expected rise in inflation to 7.2% and the only slow decline thereafter, interacting with its pre-announced policy of freezing tax relief and a stronger than expected economic recovery, means that borrowing will be surprisingly lower. £72 billion over the next four years. years than he thought last October. The projected budget deficit in four years will be the lowest in 25 years. How was this largesse to be distributed?
Serious choices were offered, but Sunak took us for fools. He surmised that a 5p fuel tax cut, lifting the National Insurance contribution threshold and promising a penny cut on the standard rate of income tax in 2024 would mislead the general public and his backbenchers in particular into thinking he was a tax. cut chancellor. This, even as tax levies rise to post-war highs. After tricking them into thinking he was doing the maximum within his artificially created constraints, Tory MPs happily waving their order sheets, he was able to leave unanswered, and with little protest, the biggest drop in revenue households for 66 years. It was a deception masquerading as a virtue.
This parade of his devotion to the Thatcherite virtues of thrift, debt reduction and commitment to “fiscal responsibility” would, he hoped, boost his reputation with his core constituency. Of course, those principles must mean he would have to build up the £30billion of financial headroom he could have made more with this year alone. But any positive option was stubbornly refused.
A down payment to upgrade in earnest, to capture the price of saving £2.5bn more in a generation? No chance – it wasn’t even mentioned. Increase total government cash spending to offset higher inflation, thus avoiding a repeat of George Osborne’s austerity? Forget it – and Sunak will be the arbiter of government policy until the election, when department after department comes begging him to restore the spending power they thought they had last October. Surprisingly, even defense spending faces real-term reduction in 2022-23. An increase in Universal Credit or a promise to index benefits to offset rising inflation as families face real poverty? No way – it’s the poor unworthy who barely vote and if they vote, they don’t vote Conservative. They can twist in the wind.
All that mattered was to guard this treasure jealously, to offer no support for the beleaguered Prime Minister in his flagship policy and no further help for millions of households facing a further £800 rise in their energy bills when the price cap will be lifted in October. The money is earmarked for tax cuts in 2024, aimed at buying the Conservatives elections and Sunak as prime minister. For shameless cynicism, I have seen nothing like it in over 40 years of commentary on budgets.
Worse still, tax cuts have been elevated to be the be-all and end-all of politics – a position they neither deserve in theory nor in practice. Many high-tax economies work very well. What drives growth are ideas, access to open and growing markets, well-run businesses, responsive institutions, trained workers, smart long-term finance, inspiring leaders, and smart and innovative that is not obsessed with the debt ceiling. Most of this the government just isn’t able to do systematically or even grasp intellectually.
Putting muscle behind upgrading or driving to net zero could be catalytic, but neither is Sunak’s or the party’s as a whole. Indeed, in key areas, we are slipping back. The Office for Budget Responsibility has delivered a scathing verdict on how Brexit has caused a collapse in our exports to and imports from the EU. It calculates that the share of trade in UK GDP has fallen by 12% since 2019, two and a half times more than any other G7 country.
Brexit is the cause, not remotely offset by any of the much-vaunted trade deals outside the EU. Falling trade slows growth and weakens the incentive for firms to increase productivity. Bad and bad, though the reign of silence on Brexit – and that largely includes you, Labor – means the damage goes unnoticed and uncriticized.
We are ruled by uncreative over-claimants obsessed with Thatcherite shibboleth – hating Europe, fetishizing tax cuts and “fiscal responsibility” and willfully disregarding the condition of the people. Sunak’s disastrous spring budget was a seismic event, but he only made choices loyal to the conceit that the priorities and values of conservatives are those of the country.
The almost universally hostile reaction testifies to how disconnected this narrow tribe has become. Britain does not want tax cuts or eternal enmity with Europe. He wants a government that has its back and understands its instincts for fairness and wants to see a creative framework that will boost growth and standards of living. Last week’s message is unambiguous. These conservatives are out of ideas and out of the way. Our struggling society and failing economy need much more.