The deadline is approaching for online measurement
Posted: June 26, 2022, 11:57 a.m.
Last update: June 26, 2022, 11:57 a.m.
By the end of Monday, we should know if California will have one or two sports betting initiatives on the November ballot.
By the office of the secretary of stateMonday is the deadline for county election officials to conclude random signature checks of sample petitions submitted by “Californians for Homelessness Solutions and Mental Health Support.” The committee proposed a state constitutional amendment to legalize online sports betting, with most of the tax money from the activity going to communities to fund these social service programs.
From April 27 to May 3, the group submitted 1.6 million signatures on petitions to officials in all 58 counties. While state law requires 997,139 valid signatures from registered voters to get an amendment question on the ballot, the online sports betting metric uses a random check method. For this reason, the samples reviewed by election officials must project 1,096,853 valid signatures.
Through Friday, the projected total was 741,470 with eight counties yet to submit their totals. This means supporters need an additional 355,383 signatures to be projected as valid for the amendment to pass.
Two major counties worth noting
Two of the counties that have yet to report are two of the largest in the state – Los Angeles and Riverside. Barring surprising results from either county, their projections should put fans above the threshold they need to reach.
Supporters collected 418,053 signatures in Los Angeles County and 116,277 in Riverside.
Current projections show that sample controls equate to 73.6% validity. If both counties match that, that would equate to 393,267 valid signatures.
Of the 50 counties that reported their results, 46 of them reported samples showing projections greater than two-thirds of valid signatures. If LA and Riverside only came back with 66.7% of projected signatures as valid, that would still be enough as it would equate to 356,220 valid signatures.
The other counties remaining to publish their results are (signatures collated in parentheses): Colusa (733), El Dorado (4,849), Lake (2,734), Mono (470), San Mateo (18,104) and Trinity (240) .
And after?
While several major sports betting operators support the online initiative, the other constitutional amendment regarding sports betting is supported by tribal nations and their supporters.
The “Coalition for Safe Responsible Gaming” supports the tribal initiative, whose signatures were verified in May 2021. This measure calls for the legalization of physical sports betting at tribal casinos and the four thoroughbred racetracks in the state. This wouldn’t allow online applications, but it would also allow tribal casinos to offer roulette and dice games in addition to the Las Vegas-style slots and card-based table games they can. currently provide.
The Online Sports Betting Measure has been amended to include ways for tribes to offer sports betting and provide funding to tribal nations. However, tribal leaders and their supporters have spoken out against the move, arguing that sports betting should instead be handled by its casinos.
The debate surrounding sports betting in California also includes a group that supports state-licensed card casinos, which have spoken out strongly against the tribal measure.
There is a debate about what would happen if the two measures got enough votes to pass, with the debate mostly focusing on whether the two measures conflicted. Depending on what voters say in just over four months, it could take some time and possibly a court ruling – or rulings – to decide the outcome.
With California being the biggest prize in the US sports betting market, both groups have pledged to spend millions to support their measures.
If the past is any precedent, however, two similar gaming bills on the same ballot could spell disaster for both.
In 2004, the state’s tribal nations wanted to increase the number of slot machines their casinos could hold to over 2,000 each while providing the state with 8.84% of the revenue. At the same time, racetracks and state-licensed card casinos wanted voters to approve slot machines at their facilities.
Voters overwhelmingly rejected both measures.